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Are there spatial and temporal correlations in the incidence distribution of scrub typhus in Korea?
[scrub typhus]
A
hierarchical
generalized
linear
model
(
HGLM
)
was
applied
to
estimate
the
transmission
pattern
of
scrub
typhus
from
2001
to
2011
in
the
Republic
of
Korea
,
based
on
spatial
and
temporal
correlation
.
Based
on
the
descriptive
statistics
of
scrub
typhus
incidence
from
2001
to
2011
reported
to
the
Korean
Centers
for
Disease
Control
and
Prevention
,
the
spatial
and
temporal
correlations
were
estimated
by
HGLM
.
Incidences
according
to
age
,
sex
,
and
year
were
also
estimated
by
the
best-fit
model
out
of
nine
HGLMs
.
A
disease
map
was
drawn
to
view
the
annual
regional
spread
of
the
disease
.
The
total
number
of
scrub
typhus
cases
reported
from
2001
to
2011
was
51
,
136
:
male
,
18
,
628
(
36
.
4
%
)
;
female
,
32
,
508
(
63
.
6
%
)
.
The
best-fit
model
selected
was
a
combination
of
the
spatial
model
(
Markov
random-field
model
)
and
temporal
model
(
first
order
autoregressive
model
)
of
scrub
typhus
transmission
.
The
peak
incidence
was
28
.
80
per
100
,
000
persons
in
early
October
and
the
peak
incidence
was
40
.
17
per
100
,
000
persons
in
those
aged
63
.
3
years
old
by
the
best-fit
HGLM
.
The
disease
map
showed
the
spread
of
disease
from
the
southern
central
area
to
a
nationwide
area
,
excepting
Gangwon-
do
(
province
)
,
Gyeongsangbuk-
do
(
province
)
,
and
Seoul
.
In
the
transmission
of
scrub
typhus
in
Korea
,
there
was
a
correlation
to
the
incidence
of
adjacent
areas
,
as
well
as
that
of
the
previous
year
.
According
to
the
disease
map
,
we
are
unlikely
to
see
any
decrease
in
the
incidence
in
the
near
future
,
unless
ongoing
aggressive
measures
to
prevent
the
exposure
to
the
vector
,
chigger
mites
,
in
rural
areas
,
are
put
into
place
.
Diseases
Validation
Diseases presenting
"ongoing aggressive measures"
symptom
scrub typhus
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