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Bayesian spatial modelling and the significance of agricultural land use to scrub typhus infection in Taiwan.
[scrub typhus]
Scrub
typhus
is
transmitted
by
the
larval
stage
of
trombiculid
mites
.
Environmental
factors
,
including
land
cover
and
land
use
,
are
known
to
influence
breeding
and
survival
of
trombiculid
mites
and
,
thus
,
also
the
spatial
heterogeneity
of
scrub
typhus
risk
.
Here
,
a
spatially
autoregressive
modelling
framework
was
applied
to
scrub
typhus
incidence
data
from
Taiwan
,
covering
the
period
2003
to
2011
,
to
provide
increased
understanding
of
the
spatial
pattern
of
scrub
typhus
risk
and
the
environmental
and
socioeconomic
factors
contributing
to
this
pattern
.
A
clear
spatial
pattern
in
scrub
typhus
incidence
was
observed
within
Taiwan
,
and
incidence
was
found
to
be
significantly
correlated
with
several
land
cover
classes
,
temperature
,
elevation
,
normalized
difference
vegetation
index
,
rainfall
,
population
density
,
average
income
and
the
proportion
of
the
population
that
work
in
agriculture
.
The
final
multivariate
regression
model
included
statistically
significant
correlations
between
scrub
typhus
incidence
and
average
income
(
negatively
correlated
)
,
the
proportion
of
land
that
contained
mosaics
of
cropland
and
vegetation
(
positively
correlated
)
and
elevation
(
positively
correlated
)
.
These
results
highlight
the
importance
of
land
cover
on
scrub
typhus
incidence
:
mosaics
of
cropland
and
vegetation
represent
a
transitional
land
cover
type
which
can
provide
favourable
habitats
for
rodents
and
,
therefore
,
trombiculid
mites
.
In
Taiwan
,
these
transitional
land
cover
areas
tend
to
occur
in
less
populated
and
mountainous
areas
,
following
the
frontier
establishment
and
subsequent
partial
abandonment
of
agricultural
cultivation
,
due
to
demographic
and
socioeconomic
changes
.
Future
land
use
policy
decision-making
should
ensure
that
potential
public
health
outcomes
,
such
as
modified
risk
of
scrub
typhus
,
are
considered
.
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scrub typhus
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